Under the influence of many factors such as the successive major international events that have had a strong impact on the globalized economy, the excessive bailout policies of the US government, and the misjudgment of the Federal Reserve, the US consumer price index in May still increased by as high as 8.6% , which hit a 41-year high. It also prompted the Federal Reserve to decide a one-time rate hike of 3 yards (0.75%) at its June meeting, which is the largest rate hike since 1994. It obviously wants to send a clear signal to the market to combat inflation. . The Fed's decision was right, but it came too late Although this hawkish move is undoubtedly correct, it came too late, leaving the global economic outlook with great uncertainty. Because the Fed may not be able to quickly bring down inflation from the demand side smoothly but the supply side shocks persist, the nightmare of stagnant inflation in the 1970s may return. Even if the Fed, by forceful means, continues to raise interest rates by more than a yard after the next few open market operations meetings to quell the overheated economy Banner Design and accelerate the slowdown in price growth, it will still result in a hard landing for the U.S. and world economies. , that is, the risk of a sharp recession. First of all, it is worth pointing out that the current inflation is often compared to the 1970s, but the current situation is still considered to be less serious, so although the Fed must turn quickly and send a signal to the market with a tough stance . But the rate of interest rate hikes will not need to be like Fed Chairman Volcker in the 1980s to raise interest rates to nearly 20%, in exchange for the economic downturn to solve the inflation problem. But unfortunately, there is a very important discovery in a recent paper published by former US Treasury Secretary, well-known economist Lawrence Summer and two colleagues: before 1983, the US Department of Labor statistics that released the consumer price index According to the Bureau, when calculating the house price part of the price, it calculates the house price, property taxes, mortgage interest rates and maintenance costs borne by the home owner. It was only later that the government discovered that such an algorithm would overestimate the true cost of housing, so the Bureau of Labor Statistics changed its calculation of housing prices after 1983: it only looked at how much the homeowner would earn if he rented out the .